![]() However, countervailing recessionary and inflation headwinds could impact the recovery cadence.Ĭonsequently, we believe the market has continued to batter DIS, given the potentially significant impact across all its vital revenue categories. Notwithstanding, Disney's Parks have been recovering well, as hotels' occupancy rates and guests' spending have continued to improve. As a result, investors need to pay particular attention to management's commentary on churn, as the slowdown in Q2 was also broad-based.ĭisney parks visitor statistics % (Company filings) Coupled with its recent partnership with The Trade Desk ( TTD) on performance advertising, Disney could offer meaningful insights on its ad performance moving forward.ĭisney media and entertainment revenue by category (Company filings)įurthermore, we believe the recessionary impact and current inflation conditions could worsen churn in its media and entertainment category. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to management's commentary on its ad revenue. Ad revenue accounted for 14.86% of Disney's total revenue. ![]() Moreover, the effect was broad-based, as seen above. Disney posted ad revenue of $2.08B, down from FQ1's $2.84B. ( Disney FQ2'22 10-Q)ĭIS ad revenue by category (Company filings)Ĭonsequently, the impact has already been felt in FQ2. In addition, an increase in price levels generally, or in price levels in a particular sector such as the energy sector, could result in a shift in consumer demand away from the entertainment and consumer products we offer, which could also adversely affect our revenues and, at the same time, increase our costs. Disney also cautioned in its filings (edited):Ī decline in economic activity, such as a recession or economic downturn, in the US and other regions of the world in which we do business, can adversely affect demand for any of our businesses, thus reducing our revenue and earnings. Can Disney Stock Recover?ĭisney investors should know that the company's business model is cyclical and could be significantly impacted by a marked economic slowdown. Our price action analysis indicates that DIS could continue to face challenges in reversing its bearish flow.Īs a result, we believe it's apt to revise our rating on DIS from Buy to Hold, heading into its upcoming earnings card. Our updated valuation model suggests that further considerable downside could still occur, as the market seems to demand higher free cash flow (FCF) yields. ![]() Consequently, we revisited our thesis and parsed whether the market could be expecting further digestion in DIS. However, DIS broke its May lows in July and set up another lower-low support zone. We posited in our previous update that the destruction in DIS could be over soon. DIS stock has been mired in a downtrend since its bull trap in March 2021 (significant rejection of buying momentum). The Walt Disney Company ( NYSE: DIS) will report its FQ3'22 earnings release on August 10.
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